Time Capitulation

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.

Gm everyone. I hope you all enjoyed your final weeks of summer. The leaves are now falling, the air is cooler, and I’ve officially been writing on the internet for over 2 years. It’s pretty cool that there’s still ~4,000 of you here. Anyways, where do we stand in the land of magic internet money and cartoon images on the blockchain? I’ll keep this post short and sweet but it seems we’re entering what many refer to as time capitulation.

It’s been a long bear market so far. Alts are down 90% from being down 90%, most NFTs are 0 or have no liquidity to make them zero, and the entire timeline is arguing and complaining about how there will never be another cycle again.

While we had some mini bubbles like NFT free mint szn in summer 2022 and the onchain mania from May-Aug 2023, it seems like with every new narrative, the participant base is shrinking. It’s only fair that the final send off of onchain was the absolute shit show of the Banana launch with a chart looking like the below.

The on-chain majors also look absolutely cooked as well.

As the resident bulltard, even I can admit that everything simply looks bad. The charts are horrible, there is literally nobody left, and there’s almost nothing in the near-term that looks like this will turn around.

Of course, I am still here to provide hopium for you all, and if there’s anything I’ve learned from being in this space, it’s that fading the general sentiment of CT is usually the smart decision.

My entire timeline is not only calling for new lows, but that there will be no new cycle ever. That this “Echo Bubble” was the final hurrah for crypto and now it’s back to goblintown for the next decade until we finally get real use cases in 2030. Interesting to say the least.

I tend to be in the Bob Loukas camp that all things are cyclical in nature, specifically crypto. If you’re feeling scared or anxious, I’d recommend checking out the following video.

We are entering one of the harder parts of the cycle. The part where there’s nothing going on, and everyone leaves out of bordem. In the past, this has unironically been the best time to accumulate your long term holdings of BTC/ETH (if you missed the bottom) and new coins. While I specifically am in no rush to go all-in right now, I am definitely accumulating some coins that I plan to hold until ~2025.

So how do you set yourself up for success going forward? Do your best to have fun.

Friend.Tech the last few weeks has been a good time and I’ve been having fun watching this narrative unfold, posting codes on twitter, and spending time in more intimate chat rooms. Since this is an NFT newsletter, I will “shill my bags” appropriately. I bought Metakeys DAO which gives you access to basically all of the top accounts in discord. I have no idea about how this will work as an investment, but .4 ETH seemed like a small price to pay to get an inside peak into many of the top rooms (or in other words, the people who control the CT narrative).

Anything you can do to keep interested and stay on top of trends will help keep you sharp for the next cycle.

NFT-wise, it’s been a slow bleeding disaster for most projects. Adding insult to injury, Blur season 2 has been an absolute nightmare for most projects and farmers. In summary, Yuga has been flat, Azuki is back under 4 ETH while Penguins seem to never go above or below 4 ETH, Captainz continuing a slow bleed, and the strongest ecosystem - Miladys - having an actual lawsuit.

Overall, time capitulation continues to eat into NFTs, and I’m more and more confident there will be under 5 projects that currently exist which will thrive in the next “NFT mania”. Most likely even less. My main bet as you all know is on Penguins, which will have some big announcements soon that will either make or break the project (from a floor price perspective) in my opinion. We’ll find out soon enough.

Transparently it’s been increasingly difficult talking about the space, specifically NFTs lately which is my main focus. There’s not much going on and it reminds me of August 2022 when I was essentially saying the same things over and over again for weeks. That being said, the hardest part during these times is staying focused and not getting lazy. There’s always airdrops to farm, new chains to learn, and still a “make it all back” play every week. Just tougher to nail. Enjoy the week and stay safe out there.

Much Love,
Wilson