Sidelined

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Gm all. Another week in the books and wow I can barely keep up. On one side of the internet the beloved “blue chips” are finally meeting their fate and the other side is calling for one million dollar bitcoin. Personally for me, my jpeg hiatus has continued and I have not made a meaningful buy or sell in 23 days. This continues to be the longest I’ve gone without doing anything and let me tell you I feel just fine. This has continued to play out for me as the last month has been essentially down-only for the majority of projects. ETH ripping above $1,800 with a vengeance isn’t helping our cause either. That being said, things are starting to look juicy. As I stalk floor prices everyday waiting for my time to strike, we’re getting closer to where I feel comfortable deploying into my chosen set of projects.

But how bad or boring can things really be? Banks are collapsing around us and pictures of cute penguins continue to hold their value. Does this surprise any of you though at this point (most know I am a penguin maxi)?

As we are in a bear market, dips are usually not for buying – instead, we want to buy strength. The best example of this over the last few months have been Penguins and Azukis. While NFT influencers have been crying on twitter about their beloved Moonbirds and Doodles, if you’ve been reading this newsletter for quite some time, then this isn’t too surprising. These projects have been in a steady downward spiral since June. Every dip bought continued to dip lower, and I am more confident by the day they will all be referred to as Cool Cats 2.0. There are probably some good scalping opportunities when we get our next narrative, but I wouldn’t look at any of these long term at the moment.

Back to my original point, taking time off has been quite a blessing. Unless you’re playing around with Ordinals right now, the wins I am seeing on the timeline and in my groups have been few and far between. Blur farmers are getting absolutely crushed and I have a hunch that airdrop 2 will not play out well for them. I do admit, I was wrong about how insanely large the first airdrop was. However, with $blur price continuing to go down combined with the idea that Blur can’t keep the ponzi going forever, I doubt we’ll see as many six-figure airdrops this time around. Plus, we still have no idea what the date for this will be.

Anyways, the last few weeks have really given me my “I told you so” moment from ringing the alarm bells about Moonbirds and the other 2 collections that continue to dump. I spent a little time dunking on those on twitter the last week or two but of course this is no way to grow a following! Instead, I can simply provide value for those who wish to listen. While I would avoid these collections like the plague for now (and yes that frog project too is going to zero), I would continue to buy strength.

In my humble opinion, Lil Pudgys have taken a beaten compared to how well big penguins have held up. They’re about ~60% of Rogs right now which doesn’t make too much sense to me when Luca literally said “Lils > Rogs" - so this is definitely where I’m looking to deploy. I won’t make any purchases for 24 hours within the release of newsletter if you want to front-run me, but I do believe these are one of the few collections entering “deep value”. Kanpai Pandas are another that will end 2023 at least 2x from where it is now (NFA). Still, I am hesitant to purchase anything right now with ETH on the ripper that it’s on, so don’t be surprised if this time next week I have done absolutely nothing.

I think my last 3-4 newsletter have been quite short and I do admit it isn’t as easy to write 2000+ words like I used to when I’m not as active in the market combined with the fact that there isn’t much going on here. On one hand, I want to come back and be the lord of penguins so that when they are 10 ETH+ I can give an even bigger I told you so. On the other hand, it’s fun to watch the destruction from the sidelines, like seeing Punks finally fly past BAYC again. The tweet below is referring to $500,000 USD for a floor monkey by the way, although there’s almost zero chance we see 150 ETH again.

This isn’t a dunk on the yuga ecosystem btw, they’re the true kings of ponzinomics and have made many holders very rich. On the other hand, we forget how crazy the last NFT bull-cycle was. For what it’s worth, I’m not saying the above statement is something I want. If BAYC hit a million dollars, I would not be complaining as that money would flow back into our ecosystem. Still, if you’re buying NFTs right now, it makes no sense to spend 70 ETH on something that’s already done 4-5 airdrops. Of course, this may age poorly.

Finally, I’ll share the below statement from Seb, one of my favorite people to follow in this space.

<sub>“”The main reason I'm so sure on a second NFT bull run is because all those that watched people early into NFTs make all this money, will want to be 'early' into the next run

Their 'early' might not be early, but i still think they'll be back””</sub>

Whenever things in this space, or crypto in general, seem “dead” - it usually means it’s the best time to deploy. The masses will always come back, and cyclical pumps are nothing new. While I don’t think deploying is the right move yet - we all remember what happened if you were buying crypto/NFTs heavy in November (which is that you may be sitting on generational wealth). Have a great week!

Cheers,
Wilson