We're All Rich Now?

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.

Gm all. This was probably one of the craziest weeks I’ve experienced in my years of hanging out in the forbidden land of CT. Watching anonymous acquaintances turn $200 into five and six figures is always a sight to behold, and it felt like if you got up to go to the bathroom you missed out on a shitcoin pre-sale and another 100x. NFTs had an interesting week due to the high gas and loss of hype regarding blur’s blend which definitely took me by surprise. There seems to be a lot of argument and debate around where we go next in the NFT space, so I’ll try to explain my thoughts at a high level below.

I still think that overall “sentiment” and “prices” had a local bottom 2-3 weeks ago when Penguins hit 3.5 ETH and Doodles/MBs/Clones almost went below 2. While shitcoin szn and high gas prices haven’t been good for jpegs, some collections have been holding up well while others are truly in the gutter. I don’t think May will be the best month in the world for us, but by June we may be in for some fun times. I still think the best time to buy your project of choice was 2-3 weeks ago, and the second best is today. That being said, none of this is ever financial advice and I am just a 70 iq penguin writing on the internet because it’s enjoyable.

After not sleeping for the entire week, I am ready for the 100 newly launched memecoins per day to come to an end. After Pepe continued to do another 10,000x or so last week, it’s safe to say a lot of NFT people (and crypto people) got very rich. In turn, I am confident that if these newly minted, ethereum rich anons will dump their chips back in the casino. That is, if they don’t overtrade themselves back to zero.

What’s nice about NFT people is that they are very good at giving back. In the sense that they will sell their NFTs below its value (isn’t value arbitrary, these are literal pictures 😂) to make a quick [rash] decision.

Moving on, watching gwei hit 300+ this week was quite the sight to see as well. Adding to this we saw collections with a .9 ETH floor and 1 ETH bids due to the high gas fees of accepting offers. We are back to the days of $150 fees to buy a $100 NFT… lovely. However, on the bright side, this makes for an unbelievable blur farming environment. You can really rack up points in this extremely low volume environment, and quickly. Let’s not forget that 300m Blur will be airdropped to ‘not so many people’ since there’s very few active wallets in season 2. Even at an ultra conservative price of $.3 - this is still a $90 million dollar injection into the market. No reason to not farm a bit even for something like a $5,000 stim check that won’t require much effort.

The other side of CT is of the mind that NFTs will continue to tank in the gutter. Fwiw, I just don’t see this (my bags of course) happening right now. While there’s maybe 10 collections worth talking about right now if you’re still here, the combination of NFT people getting very rich overnight and ETH looking like it’s about to enter a downtrend makes me feel that (again, my bags) NFTs are in for a nice summer. Ecosystem strength from Penguins, Azuki, Miladys, and Captainz look to be sitting pretty for another leg up when this rotation eventually happens.

At the end of the day the name of the game is rotation. Narratives shift quickly here and you never want to be the one left holding the bag only to endure the wrath of severe volatility. This memecoin narrative or whatever you want to call it has been quite fun (and exhausting). A lot of lives have been changed, hopefully for the better, and this ETH is going to change hands eventually and move to the next thing. May you have sold the pico top of $Pepe and buy the pico bottom of the next big thing.

Cheers,
Wilson