Purgatory

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Gm all. I’ve been on a bit of a hiatus the last 9 days and haven’t paid much attention to the markets since Sunday the 26th, when I wrote my last post. This feels like the longest I’ve gone since June/July without being dialed in 24/7.

Frankly, the winning plays are far and few at the moment and preserving capital and patience have played out quite well for me. The market of buying and selling internet pictures is funny this way. While you hear about the 100x somebody made every week (Owls this week), most of the time in a lackluster market, the winning move is patience. I wish I had more insight to share but this is probably the longest I’ve gone (1 week) without buying or selling an NFT since I joined the space back in Dec 2020. Anyways – sipping on my morning Yerba Mate and listening to some Chopin, sharing my musings for all of you to read.

So where to begin. My last post I wrote a little over a week ago discussed how being bearish right now is a fools errand. I want to reiterate that at this moment I still agree. Do not mistake a lackluster market and my personal boredom with the overall ethos that everything is going to zero. The conditions right now are setting up for a move sometime in the future, but with no catalysts I would prefer to have the proper liquidity to take advantage of this.

Whether it’s weeks or months, I don’t see much that is going to push us significantly higher or lower. We’re at some sort of stalemate and I’ve been quite impressed by how long the most volatile market in the world can stay flat. As mentioned last week, most big blur farmers seem exhausted, combined with the fact that Blur has released little information on season 2, combined with the fact that the actual Blur token chart looks like it’s headed to 0 and boom, you have a whole lot of nothing.

Volume is decent and Blur + OS is essentially flat week-over-week. However, we’re still only around 70,000 ETH of weekly trading volume and are a ways off from the 100,000 ETH weekly trading volume back in June, right when the bear market kicked off. On the bright side, ETH has kept a tight range in the 1500-1600 realm which has prevented anything disastrous.

The key is to not get chopped up. While we may be in the accumulation zone (for only high quality projects), you’re definitely not early. When everyone panicked 2 weeks ago about BendDAO and BAYC dropped 15 ETH in a day, this was the time to buy quality projects. This “48 hour contagion” hit every Blue Chip and basically the entire market – now we’re essentially ~25% higher from that point.

Instead, most will ape late to the weekly or daily project that pumps, and unless you were early, your Megapunks or Owls aren’t going to save you. We’ve seen this play out 100s of times, it’s always the same.

Also, stop buying garbage like Momoguru sheesh. How many times have we seen this where a 100k+ twitter account with like 150 total tweets pops up out of the blue and has a ton of “hype”. I thought we were smarter than this. If you’re on optimist like me, the fact that we’re still falling for this means that the market is more bullish than I would have expected and there’s got to be some retail here… right?

So where do we go from here? I’m not exactly sure. It makes no sense to be bearish right now and I do believe we’re coiling for a decent move (most likely not down). At the same time, I don’t expect this to come anytime soon with the current information presented to me. While you’re minting your 19th open edition of the week, I’ll be sitting on the sidelines with my Penguin bags and liquidity ready to pounce.

To end on a positive note, one of our industries biggest grifters, Ryan Carson, has left web3 and is moving on the AI. Now, this is what I would call a bottom signal.

Cheers,

Wilson