It's (Probably Not / Unlikely To Be / Dubiously / Implausibly) Over

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Gm gm. It seems the end times are upon us. When I say the end times, I mean that ETH is down ~$20 and everyone is once again doomposting and max leveraging shorting hoping for $800. However, I will allow the subset of traders to continue max shorting MATIC on 250x leverage until it is $0. I find this to be an acceptable outcome.

As an on-chain arena gladiator, my recent fumbles have been particularly brutal. I’m supposed to be on my anti-jeet arc but I seem to be too afraid to let it ride and capture far more gains than I have this summer. I think this is because I have felt the winds changing subconsciously.

It’s pretty insane how only a few months ago, tickers were EASILY clearing $10-20m market cap and now it’s an achievement to behold if you even get above $5m. Jeets, 5/5 token tax farms and easily accessible ERC-20 deployers have caused a paradigm shift with liquidity flowing in and out of tokens faster than ever.

As much as I’m tempted to continue aping coins on the new pairs tab of Dexscreener, I realized that I’m simply ill-equipped to beat the sniper bots who buy coins at a $2,000 market cap and then jeet immediately once real bids start coming in for a 10x at 20k. Unless you’re outfitted with 10 different bots / snipers, it’s usually a losing proposition to mindlessly buy the latest and greatest coin - with a few exceptions.

For example, you should probably avoid ShibaPepeWizard9Doge upon launch. A derivative with zero creativity like this is a good candidate for a sniper pump and dump. However, I’ve seen more and more recently that some coins do tend to come back after the snipers have left the scene of the crime and the coin is down 95%. It’s risky, but playing a bounce is decent r/r if you go in with small size.

On the other hand, if you find a good meme or something that’s being anticipated across social media, that may be a good time to cast caution into the wind. I saw NAVYSEALS (based on the legendary 2010 4chan copypasta) at 140k and threw a very large amount vs. what I’d typically throw at a coin that small because of the meme power. As of this morning it’s bouncing between $1.5-$2m market cap, which is a pretty nice return overall.

I think the best thing to do in this environment is to exercise extreme caution and patience. For every coin I got in early on, there’s another 10 that I missed that did even better. Forcing your capital to work for you is a recipe for disaster and a one-way trip to zero. With majors looking shaky, factorydoge posed a good question earlier which I have also asked myself.

I don’t necessarily know what it will take to kill off on-chain summer, but it would have to be a pretty big nuke to discourage people from gambling their Pepe gains. Personally, I think on-chain PVP is here to stay barring any severe dumping on BTC and ETH but I’m open to any possibilities at this point. Nothing is ever off the table.

If you’re indecisive like me, I think BDB passed along some very solid advice in his discord recently.

On a nominal basis, you’ll stand to receive larger returns despite multiples being lower. Much easier and digestable than trying to take an at-bat against Shohei Ohtani and betting that you’ll hit a 450-foot home run over the centerfield wall. Will do my best to continue reminding myself to add to my winners and cut my losers, not the inverse.

Anyway, I’ve spent enough time writing but wanted to share some more thoughts as we continue to risk it all for glory. Stay safe and remember to check for honeypots, lazy bastards.

Cheers,
Chuck