One Of Those Weeks

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.

Gm all. Once again I am one day behind – but oh well, with the lackluster market it feels like the days are blending together at this point. If only the SEC suing Coinbase would pump our jpeg bags instead of ETH, life would be a lot simpler. As the summer begins this lull we’re in seems a bit strange. On one hand we have Binance FUD and on the other hand we have HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu making all time highs. Memes continue to service as the reserve currency in this market, whether for NFTs or not. But of course, this is a line I’ve overused too many times and like Pepe, the initial pump seemed inevitable when looking back.

I went from that feeling of being glued to my phone 24/7 the entire month of May, to being a little bored as of the last week. It ‘feels’ like things have slowed down but maybe this is just what burnout feels like. That being said, there’s no better place than the worlds greatest casino, so touching grass for a few days might not be the worst thing to do. With shitcoin szn at a fraction of what it was a month ago, majors crabbing, and NFTs in purgatory for the most part, finding the new “narratives” to rotate into has been a bit more difficult. Still, there’s always something out there, and the hposi crowd had another great week with Sproto Gremlins pumping from 0 to .7 ETH so far (and it looks like it’s going to keep running).

At a high level, volume still sucks. A lot of what’s left is farming, making or taking loans, and dumping on one another. Although, floor prices have been steady and Azuki, DeGods, and Captainz have led the way. With no news still regarding the Blur season 2 airdrop, I expect NFTs to crab for a little longer than I initially anticipated. There are few catalysts on the horizon, and my bags (Pudgy Penguins) continue to slowly bleed. Silver lining is for the most part, collections have performed well in these conditions. We’re doing roughly the same trading volume as July 2022, when things continued to grind down lower and lower every week. Now, since we have the same 16 people trading NFTs, everyone is just holding their bags as the majority of capitulation seemingly happened over the last few months.

On the other hand, there’s still lower cost collections that are continuing to move. All things considered, price action is actually much better than market sentiment. If you spend a lot of time in discords, people are bored and aren’t trading as much. But interestingly enough, they’re not selling as much as I would expect. Overall, this ended up being a good week for most of the top 25 on Blur averaging around a 5-7% move up in floor price.

Opepen has grinded back up over the last month to almost 1 ETH and 0n1 has held steady above 1.5, looking like it wants to tickle past 2. Yuga assets are holding steady / catching bids, and even Doodles and Moonbirds are holding steady above their lows. It really ain’t that bad. Punks have also taken back their #1 spot over Apes, and I’d generally say this healthy. In hindsight, this was obvious but I’m still surprised by how strong diamond handed Apes are, considering there’s not much airdrop-ponzi-juice left to squeeze.

I’m not going to act like an expert on everything going on with the SEC and I’m not going to talk about 300K market cap shitcoins. I’ve definitely been able to take a breather from trading a lot over the last few days which has certainly been a nice refresher. Maybe my temporary boredom in NFTs is marking the bottom, maybe we end up having a repeat of summer 22, or maybe, just maybe we have the NFT summer that I predicted ~3 weeks ago that has yet to show it’s face. Probably some sort of combination of all 3 of these outcomes divided up into biweekly narratives, but that isn’t as fun.

Until we get some clarity on and end date for season 2 of Blur, I expect more or less of the same environment where farmers slowly bleed themselves and some collections while continuing to dump one another. We’ll still have our “collection of the week” that has one person on twitter turn $100 to $100K, and we can’t forget about the new guy down tremendously on a bull market purchase.

Despite all of this, I can’t ever leave this place. The risk of not being “on” 24/7 means missing out on generational wealth. I’m still watching things closely, doing some occasional farming on lower vol collections, and watching my bags fluctuate a whopping .1% every day in this exciting market. Captainz has some big announcements on the horizon which will either add or suck liquidity from the market depending on how you look at it.

If you spent last week outside, you didn’t miss much. What are the chances this happens again?

Cheers,
Wilson