Old Dog, New Tricks

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.

Gm my degenerate best friends - Paul speaking.

If you’ve only ever read these newsletters and have never engaged in our Discord (it’s been popping off lately - you should check it out) then you’ve probably never met me. Wilson and I started Mint Media (aka Mint Calendar) 2+ years ago to try making the NFT industry a bit easier to navigate. I’ve always served as editor, lurking in the shadows, tweaking grammar, and adding zingers to Wilson and Chuck’s newsletters whenever the opportunity presented itself.

As we head into what seems to be another cycle full of generational wealth-creating mania, I felt it would be worth coming out of my shell a bit and sharing some of what’s been on my mind as we look ahead to what will likely be pure, unadulterated mayhem. The bulk of this newsletter will be less about current events (I’ll leave that for Wilson whose energetically aligned with the market and senses sentiment/narratives in his veins), and will be more about principals to consider as you dust off your Trezor, strap in to your couch for the next 12-24 months, and kiss your loved ones goodbye (we’re your family now – it’s ok).

Out With The Old, In With The Old

Look back at any chart for any on-chain asset that mooned during the last cycle, whether it be the shitcoin you thought was going to disrupt modern finance as we know it, or the jpeg you hitched your entire identity to for the better part of a year, and you will likely find yourself wondering whether or not that “asset” will ever relive its former glory days. 9 times out of 10, you’re looking at a permanent death sentence.

This begs the question – how do you identify the 1 out of 10 “assets” which represent some of the best R/R opportunities in the space? It certainly isn’t easy, and I’m no fortune teller, but there are some key indicators which tend to get overlooked when you overweight the value of your emotions and underweight the value of logic. The indicators can be broken down into four basic (and probably obvious) categories: community, team, narrative alignment, and new comps.

Community. There is no better example of community strength to reference than the gold standard, Pudgy Penguins. When the original founder essentially abandoned the project and their backs were up against the wall, Penguins only got stronger (whereas most other projects would have instantly collapsed). Tl;dr, seek out communities which were forged in fire.

Team. Read the founder’s tweets over the past 12+ months and check their discord announcements. Were they constantly achieving meaningful milestones despite market sentiment? Or, were they Kevin Rose?

Narrative Alignment. This is out of the team and community’s control, but is arguably paramount. If the “narrative” that this project operates within is not hot or is not expected to get hot – run and hide.

New Comps. Simply put – there are very few original ideas left in this space (and in the world generally); most new projects are just slightly better versions of old projects. Ask yourself – is the new shiny version genuinely better / more interesting, or just new and shiny?

Lessons Learned: Get Out Of Your Own Way

As we head into this next cycle I can’t help but reflect on my past mistakes in an attempt to ensure I never make them again. I am not perfect and will almost definitely repeat certain errors, but the objective is to minimize these occurrences.

One of the biggest errors I’m trying to correct, which many of you probably have experienced as well, is to lead more with logic, and less with emotion.

Kun says some pretty intelligent things in a way that comes off as basic/obvious (a true sign of genius). Highly recommend following for periodic reality checks in your twitter feed (like the tweet above). In line with Kun’s perspective, the second you start thinking that you’ve outsmarted the market, chances are you’re too far gone. In other words, let’s all try to avoid mid-curving this time around.

Notable Narratives

While I will not be calling out specific projects in this newsletter, I will be highlighting a few narratives that I believe are worth taking note of heading into 2024.

Institutional Facilitators. Anons on CT have been preaching for literally over a decade, that one day, large institutions will come and “buy our bags”. Every prior cycle, protocols/projects were built atop this fundamental belief, only to end up disappointing holders when institutions did not in fact buy anyones bags, because the industry wasn’t mature enough and the “macro” conditions didn’t create a substantial enough need for blockchain tech. Welp – I’m happy to look like a fool if I’m wrong and turn out to be one of those inaccurate anons who I just referenced, but I believe that institutions are finally here to “buy our bags” (I mean they literally are, everyone’s impatiently awaiting these Bitcoin ETFs to get approved). In anticipation of this overwhelming influx of capital, I’m focusing on the projects/protocols which will more easily facilitate the onboarding of these institutions – the picks and shovels, if you will.

Memes. Wilson coined a phrase in a past newsletter which really stuck with me – he said that in this industry, memes are currency. When Wilson first made this proclamation, the entire notion was novel. With the passing of time and the proven sustained interest in various pure-play meme coins (PEPE, SHIB, BONK, $BITCOIN, GROK… the list goes on), this notion has gone from novel to “lindy”. This is a massive shift in the way we think about the ways in which finance and culture intersect, and I wouldn’t overlook it.

Solana dApps. This one is simple. Solana is shaping up to be the L1 darling of this cycle, as blockchain enjoyers grow comfortable with the notion of operating outside of Ethereum and look for low-cost alternatives with growing adoption. I believe dApps on Solana with associated utility tokens are worth looking out for; as they say – the riches are in the niches.

Conclusion: When In Doubt – Zoom Out

If I was a betting man (and I am – we all are, I think), I would say that at this point in time, based on where we are in the market and what is to come, your biggest risk, aside from being underexposed to the industry you sign into every day, is selling too early.

If you are someone who never left during this past bear market (I say past because it’s truly over now), chances are you may experience some level of PTSD when your coins/jpegs dump heavily. You spent the last bull market buying dips and getting rewarded for it, only to face an opposite fate buying dips over the past year – your PTSD is completely justified. That said – you need to snap out of it.

If you are “investing” (gambling) in an “asset” that you, and people much smarter than you, have conviction in, and you experience one of these gigantic dumps which make you question why you ever came back to this hellscape, just zoom out. Try to remember why you came back in the first place, and acknowledge which general direction everything seems to be heading.

Thank you for tuning in to my debut newsletter. If you liked what you read, and want to hear more from me, ping me on Discord and tell me. If you thought this was a waste of time and hope to never hear from me again, also ping me on Discord to let me know. I just want someone to talk to.

Be well,

Paul