Fake News

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.

Gm all and happy Tuesday. It became clear yesterday that there are two type of peoples – those who were euphoric when they saw the fake “Bitcoin ETF approved” headline from coin telegraph, and those who panicked, frantically FOMOing in, not to get caught offsides as the great Larry Fink describes Bitcoin as a flight to “quality”. Ideally, you’re somewhere in the middle - enough coins, pictures, and whatever else you bull-ieve in, where if the mother of all pumps began tomorrow you’re content, but enough stables to continue accumulating if we chop for another 6-12 months. Despite 1 hour of mania on the X app yesterday, by the end of the day CT was quiet, cold, and desolate again. I myself have found this period (mid-September to now) to be quite boring. On-chain memes pumping less and less, FriendTech volume drastically slowing down, NFTs remaining flat, and Discord as dead as I can remember.

While I don’t think it’s time to go full bulltard at the moment, it does feel like we’ll be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel sometime in 2024. The “accumulation period” everyone has been talking about, been occurring since ~November 2022 in my opinion, and we’re in the later stages now. This is when most people experience “time capitulation” as I’ve ranted about, where instead of selling your flat, boring, do-nothing crypto bags, you actually should be accumulating your favorite assets you think will perform well next cycle (that of course is if you believe we’ll have another crypto cycle…). Things are so slow I think it’s actually a pretty decent time to focus, as the next big meme, nft pump, or narrative will begin (or has begun) sometime later this month.

NFT-wise, the market has been pretty solid with nothing really going down anymore (for now). Penguins flipped MAYC making them the #3 most valuable PFP and fulfilling my 2023 prediction from January (Nice!). Azuki/BAYC have been steady, and a few of the remaining hopium dealers are waiting for the $MEME launch which is supposedly coming fairly soon.

The hot topic of the week was Blur season 2 and Flooring.

I spent some time playing around with the flooring app. Now, it all makes sense why Pimp Capital was sweeping 100s of NFTs over the last month or so as this is the protocol he built and needs to provide liquidity. In sum, I think the idea is interesting and if the UI is fixed then this can probably help increase NFT liquidity. Ultimately, flooring helps make non-fungible tokens fungible. There’s definitely a good opportunity to farm here for those defi enjoyers but it doesn’t make much sense unless you’re using ‘decent’ size.

We also have the long awaited Blur season 2 dropping next month.

As mentioned many times, farmers have been BTFO here. I have a few predictions on how this will work out:

In order for Blur to avoid 1/3 of the airdrop going to basically sub 5 people, they’re going to have to throttle the airdrop. Along with this, their token is down ~90% from peak and Pacman needs to dish up a new ponzi quickly. I floated around the idea of the LooksRare model, which may work since Blur has actual users. Still, I’m not expecting much here and am hoping for a pleasant surprise.

Next up, I’d recommend following https://twitter.com/OverpassIP and turning notifications on as I expect this to drop sometime this week. Penguin holder or not, the team mentioned they’ll be licensing 50-100 new penguins by EOY so I’d expect to see some narratives emerge here (and obviously price action).

I haven’t been following much of the digital art trends recently but it seems to be where there is a ton of opportunity. Since I have little taste and don’t understand this stuff, I have missed out on generational wealth once again. Oh well. Instead, I’m watching things like SOMO and Blockgames dice, which may or may not be the right decision.

Anyways, that’s all that has piqued my interest for now. I continue to think that Penguins will eat NFT marketshare going into the end of the year and that we’re due for a new shiny object (SOMO, or whoever else builds a fun ponzi game). It wouldn’t surprise me either if we see some new memes run (or something like $bitcoin) and get a mini on-chain heat up over the next few weeks. Binance news still looms but ultimately I’m expecting ETF approval sometime in early 2024.

If you’re still here everyday then I’m assuming you have no plans of leaving – this strange internet land is your new home now. Some old sage advice I should probably take more of myself – don’t blow yourself up before “easy mode” comes back again.

Have a great week!

Cheers,
Wilson