Very Exciting Times....

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.

Gm basechain enjooooyers. What a whirlwind of a week it has been. On one hand, current crypto events haven’t been this crazy since FTX/LUNA with Curve on an express train to zero and rumors of SBF being back and rugging everyone who’s trapped on Base. On the other hand, if you’re focused on NFTs, we’re simply in ‘no mans land’. In simple terms, there is a lack of volatility. As this is a newsletter I do my best to keep jpeg specific, this won’t very long. There really is nothing interesting going on at the moment. On the bright side… well there isn’t much of a bright side for now.

Let’s recap this week. NFT weekly volume was the lowest in all of 2023 and lowest since July 2021. Technically, the NFT bull market kicked off in August 2021 so this is even pre 2021 bull market levels.

It feels like we’re in purgatory with little on the horizon. Azuki liquidity suck, Yuga assets unable to pump on any announcement, Captainz and $MEME being dragged out, and our forever hyped $Blur airdrop is nowhere to be seen.

This being said, we do have some little bright spots… DeGods and Penguins have been holding steady with some “hyped” announcements that are supposed to come out this month. Punks have recovered well from their bottom and are now 30%+ ahead of apes (everyone saw this coming). Outside of this, it feels like everyone is basically waiting for something to happen but there isn’t much to look forward to.

Historically, times like these have been where the kingmaker trades are made. And that ‘may’ be the case in a few months right now. For me, I’m still a bit wary for the most part. While I think projects like Penguins continue to outperform, it still feels like we are due for a “flush”. Snot Monkeys and Azuki are still ~$10,000+ which is 6 months of rent for many in this country. While there have been signs, real capitulation hasn’t happened yet. I’m not talking “NFTs are dead headlines”, I’m talking your favorite influencers who spent years building a brand around their MAYC PFP leaving this space entirely. We’ve seen some (not going to name names) but not in full yet.

As Chuck mentioned last week, shitcoins and the on-chain meta has been extremely +EV. NFTs on the other hand feel like you’re locking up your ETH for some time.

So, what do we do in August? Captainz, DeGods, Penguins all have the opportunity to take a big leg up IMO. With Azuki and Yuga continuing to grind down and threaders still obsessing about the 40M liquidity suck from Elementals, there is a vacuum to fill. Obviously I’m bias, and think Pengs will be the “Savior” of this market (and I’ve been mostly right on broader trend stuff), however, I’m not even sure if the success of one of these projects will bring a rising tide. In fact, it may steal liquidity from other projects and cause more of a spiral.

Anyways, where does this lead us now. ETH is still ranging, although with all of CT bearish right now, we’ll see what happens next. I don’t think ETH going lower will have a meaningful impact for now, unless we get a flush of 10%+ where people panic sell their NFTs in order to sell ETH for stables, I think for the most part we’re at the acceptance stage with respect to our internet picture bags.

I’m still scanning the market for some low market cap degen plays in the NFT space. I think some shitcoins with NFTs ($Bitcoin, $DMT) may eventually inspire some sort of “staking” meta. Sprotos have been a big winner over the last month and are holding steady.

This may sound haram but I am also dipping my toes back into the AVAX NFT scene (yes, please laugh at me). Dokyo has a ton of hype and is bringing over a large crowd from Solana. With expected launch sometime in September, I expect this to bring some liquidity to that ecosystem assuming that the ETH (read: real) NFT market is still somewhat in shambles. I think Dokyo, at least upon launch and early stages, is destined to succeed and grab some attention.

Overall, I do find it tougher to write when there’s not much to cover. I am finding these days over at the Blur dashboard extremely boring and instead have joined all of you in the on-chain casino over the last few months. With the Base incident looking like a huge liquidity suck, maybe there’s a small, very small, chance that some attention comes back to our pictures on the blockchain. Or maybe, we just nuke and end this “echo bubble” for good. Guess in that case it will be time to bunker down until 2024.

Anyways, that’s it for now. Hope that you’re all having fun gambling on the meta of the week (coffee and telegram bots). Another week of surviving and thriving.

Cheers,
Wilson