Devs Are Looking Handsome

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Gm gm gm. A relatively quiet week in the realm of AVAX NFTs. On-chain devs are looking particularly handsome, however. Their beauty and grace are directly correlated with fungible token prices - didn’t you know?

With $BLUR airdropping earlier this week, all eyes have been on ETH collections and people reaping their rewards for slugging it out in the trenches for the last few months. I deeply regret not farming bid points over the last 6 weeks, but I’ve been relatively happy with what I received.

If you’re an AVAX NFT purist, you’re probably feeling a little left out at the moment.

Let’s see just how down bad we are.

Market Update

If you didn’t know the numbers, you certainly felt the vibe. This was our worst week in trading volume in months. $Blur dropped on Tuesday and Joepegs literally did <$1k USD volume. Coincidence? I know you anons didn’t have Valentine’s Day plans, so there is only one other reasonable cause here.

As I mentioned last week, attention in NFTs, and web3 more broadly, is the reserve currency of the market. The life cycle of a project / chain / protocol / meme / drama episode is extremely condensed. One day, you’re at the top of the world. The next, you are in the dumpster with all of the other misbegotten by-gones.

This is a crude analogy as quality projects don’t die if buoyed by strong communities, but that is not always the case. Many DO die and are never heard from again.

Of course, I’m not suggesting that AVAX NFTs are dead in any capacity. In fact, I have taken a lot of my shitcoin gains from the past few days and have been aggressively bidding on quality projects. There are plenty of paper hands in our midst.

When the market is quiet, that is the time to strike. There are multiple kingmaker plays to be made. Instead of using that copy of The Art of War as a paperweight, I suggest reading a few pages.

Project Update

Trading is such a funny thing. My biggest realization over the past year is that none of the numbers, trends, or individual lines actually matter and anyone who claims they do, especially for pictures, is a larp.

If you follow people who produce graphs like the above, do yourself a favor and purge them from your timeline. The best traders don’t understand technical analysis (read: astrology for men), but human sentiment. Understanding of your counterparty’s psychology is easy once you realize it’s very similar to your own.

Big red number? Guess I better sell everything. Double digit green? I should probably buy so I don’t miss the run up.

If you make decisions in NFTs, or anything really, founded from an emotional reaction, you will lose 99.99999% of the time. Establishing best practices and discipline is critical.

Looking at the highest volume projects this week, I see numerous arbitrage opportunities. I don’t want to harp on specifically what I like here as I’ve covered them ad nauseam in previous newsletters, but I think many of the top projects here are currently grossly mispriced. In 4-6 weeks, these will look photoshopped.

As I’ve said before, I strongly suggest being patient and putting out some thicc collection bids for the floor price:bid arbitrage of ~20%. Unless you’re a gigawhale chad, then go for the 100 OG Chad Doge sweep.

Obviously, NONE of what I write about here is financial advice and is purely my own degenerate opinion.

In light of market sentiment, or lack of current excitement on AVAX, I’m not going to pretend that any upcoming mints really get me going. Beeg Brutes is minting in a couple of hours - frankly, I know nothing about the project and I think there are better +EV opportunities in existing projects vs. chasing a fresh mint in a zero liquidity velocity environment.

Conclusion

Bit of a shorter read today, but I think there’s a lot to take away from the past week. Do some research and see if you can finally get into a project that is at a more attractive entry. Beeg things are coming very soon. In Chuck we trust.

Cheers,

Chuck