Corn Chips? I Asked For Blue Chips

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

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Gm all. Another lackluster week in the books as jpegs continue to struggle. Right now, it seems like there is very little to look forward to in the world of internet pictures. With the destruction of the fake “blue chips” a lot of long-time holders are down tremendously. It’s tough to imagine the guy who bought Moonbirds at 30 ETH or Doodles at 20 ETH see his bags down 95% and not want to leave NFTs forever.

Blur farming is still frustrating (to say the least), and even the “good” collections can barley move with the onslaught of farmers dumping on one another. Everything is bad, and nothing is good. Of course, I took this week to start adding some new pictures to my arsenal because buying the blood is what I do best.

Volume is a bit misleading here but overall we’re at decently high levels compared to the rest of the bear market. A lot of this is artificial and consists of Machi and Franklin dumping on one another. As we can see, the entire market has moved to Blur. Hopefully, Opensea can create some sort of incentive structure to bring us back to their platform (drop a token PLEASE!) as it’s the main platform that onboards retail. However, I am not betting on this.

Moving on, nothing embodies the “NFTs are altcoins with pictures” ethos quite like the tweet above. Blur farming has really changed the game and until Season 2 is over (and farmers get screwed in my opinion) I think we’re going to be stuck in this perpetual cycle.

On the bright side, Blur farming keeps floors depressed for projects I like (in the medium term) which is why I made my first purchase in over a month. I started accumulating Kanpai Pandas (NFA, never financial advice, not even advice) after writing about them for months. With Moonbirds, Doodles, Clones never recovering (in my opinion), the Memeland ecosystem and Captainz are clearly next in line to take their place. This leaves me with 2 projects left to fill the void and I feel confident that Ice Bagz will lead me to promised land. At 1.5 ETH, I think this is an easy 2x. But, I have a 74 IQ so don’t listen to me. If interested, watch the interview below and form your own conclusions.

I also will continue to add jepgs from the Pudgy ecosystem as I mentioned last week. I think Lil Pudgys and now Rogs are in a good buy zone. Still, these are highly farmed collections and I do not want to catch a falling a knife. I am still monitoring these floors for good deals but I am in absolutely no rush to pick them up at the moment. While Rogs dumped post announcement, I am quite bullish on the mechanics and utility that Luca announced - plus the fact that they dumped on this announcement.

Reason being, rogs were always pumped by the community and not the team. Rogs are only relevant for big and lil holders, and the team would specifically say to “buy lils over rogs”. Luca legit told you what to do, can’t make this up. Now , since rogs have “real value” they are simply not funny anymore. Many degens who are down bad after falling for the “Rogs to 1 ETH” influencer shill will bail on the collection and in turn, we get a nice refresh. Not to mention this utility means nothing for them if they don’t hold any bigs or lils. Once the “utility” fatigue dies down, the memes will arise like a phoenix from the ashes, and people will forget they have any utility. Eventually, rogs will become funny again and we’ll repeat the same cycle. Just my two cents.

Next up, let’s dunk on NFT influencers. After shilling the top of every collection that has dumped 90% (while missing out on penguins, pandas, and many more), they shilled you checks the other month. Not to any surprise, Checks are down bad! Now, these same folks who managed to buy a Punk or BAYC at 1 ETH are shilling you Nakamigos. Look, if you minted or got a ton under .05, congrats. However, this project is not going to one ETH and we already see the “future blue chip” rhetoric that we saw around Checks and every other collection.

This kind of talk is beyond dangerous and what you see at the PICO TOP of most collections. How many times will we see this play out! Here is a quote from ME “Checks is a great example of this. At 2 ETH, we started to see the narrative of folks calling this “the next Fidenza” and the project is now down 75%+ from its ATH.” Now Checks is down ~85% from the ATH and nobody who reads my ramblings are surprised.

I caution you to think for yourself. In this market, the narratives are very thin and don’t last long. It’s easy to get caught up since it does not require much to take over the market’s attention. As always, lurk in the areas that don’t gain much attention. Chuck has been making an absolute bag in AVAX NFTs (and me on a smaller scale) the last 2 weeks. Would highly recommend reading his Mint Avalanche on Thursday as these have been absolute bangers recently.

Other than all of the above, not much has changed. The TLDR is that I remain sidelined for the most part and am still slowly accumulating projects that I feel comfortable holding for 3 months+. Until Blur farming ends and ETH decides on prices to range within, trading this market isn’t worth the risk/reward. Unless you’re minting Nakamigos or are aware of a major catalyst (I am not), there is no rush to spend your precious ETH at the moment.

Finally, I look forward to the next time I am able to write a 3000+ word essay about NFTs. For now, things are still boring.

Have a great week!

Cheers,
Wilson