You Can't Sit With Us

(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

Special Trigger Warning: If you have been sidelined from AVAX over the last week, you may experience the following symptoms after reading this newsletter, including but not limited to: nausea, light-headedness, overwhelming shame and heightened levels of self-loathing.

Good morning you beautiful degenerates. I am absolutely fired up this morning. After weeks of being proverbially burned at the stake for leaning hard into AVAX, we just had an absolutely monstrous week. I’d go as far to say as this was probably the best week for AVAX NFTs since I got in the mix last year.

We’ll get into the nitty gritty shortly, but for an ecosystem that typically does between $50k-$100k in weekly volume, this is certified bonkers.

I’m not one to hold a grudge, but a good dunking is in order. I prepared a collage of all of the receipts over the last two weeks of people saying things to the effect of “AVAX is ded” or “I only lose money”. I’ll resist the urge to turn this into an full-blown exposé and keep it brief to one of my favorites.

While I will be dunking all over the sidelinoooooors today, let us remember to embrace them with open arms and compassion. We’ve all been faders before and while ETH concurrently loses steam in the background, I couldn’t think of a better time to convince people to bridge some AVAX and get back in the game.

Let’s get right to it.

Market Update

If you’re out of the loop, I’m sure the burning question is “who are these gremlins and why are they max bidding?”

We broke down some of the week’s highlights last night.

In my Patiently Waiting post from a month ago, I mentioned that March would be a pretty fun month. The first couple of weeks definitely tested my conviction, but I knew things had to turn a corner at some point. Because they always do, right? Right???

Project Update (Read: All of Them)

Let’s tick through some projects and discuss what all the rage is.

OOPA

What a heel turn from mint day. I should have seen this coming - after what was an underwhelming mint on March 10th, OOPAs opened up their reveal process last Friday and allowed Golden Token owners to convert their tokens into OOPAs. Almost immediately after the reveal process opened, every Golden token under mint price on the floor was swept, paperhands were BTFO and the remaining ~500 tokens that were up for grabs from the open mint were immediately snagged.

Over the course of the week, people have decided to ape like crazy.

It is clear that the people do in fact like the OOPAs. What’s even more interesting is that sub-trait DAOs have already begun to form.

There are other DAOs cropping up as well. I’ve seen the King DAO, the Godfather DAO, and several others. It’s definitely worth browsing traits and seeing if there’s a discounted OOPA that has a DAO-desirable trait. With trait swapping on the horizon, I only see this becoming more and more prominent (and expensive) going forward.

With the staking feature going live earlier this week, I expect OOPAs to continue becoming more scarce. Keep in mind that there are a good amount of Golden Tokens that have not become OOPAs yet. If you want to try your luck (I know you do), it might be worth buying some tokens and seeing how they pan out. Keep in mind that they are trading at a premium (~8 AVAX for a beach token).

Ferdy Fish

Ferdy got swept to the high heavens this week. I don’t want to paste all of the Joepeg bot sale tweets, but I think you’ll get the idea with this one.

I mentioned Ferdy Flip a few times over the last month, which is simply an AVAX coin flip gambling game. It looks like Ferdy is really leaning into their gambling side here after the announcement of Dice last week.

Now that holders are entitled to a % of degen revenue, suddenly they are much more attractive. Not to mention that their meme game is simply on a different plane of existence. They continue to come out with unbelievably good and on-brand memes at breakneck speed.

A well-deserved pump indeed. Pray for the Ferdy faders in particular.

Smol Joes / Smol Creeps

As a reminder, we had 7 Smol Joe sales this week. I’ve always maintained that examining Smol Joe volume is a good heuristic for figuring out where AVAX NFT sentiment is.

I’ve been wanting to get back into the Smol Joe cabal after paper-handing my Smol Tree Joe at 115 AVAX way back last summer. I am pleased to announce that I have made my return.

Why, do you ask? See for yourself.

After teasing an expansion over the last couple of weeks, Smol Joes finally gave us a look at how they’re planning to move the project forward. It looks like a new 1,000 piece Smol Joe project will form from the burning of Smol Creeps, which have in turn made a massive move upward off the news and sit at a 20 AVAX floor. The genesis Smol Joes will be able to participate without burning their Joe.

Owning a Creep ahead of this launch would be a very good idea.

Time and time again, Smol Joe owners continue to reap the benefits and I’m glad to not only be back in the saddle, but see new Smol Joe owners in the near future.

Who’s Next?

I covered the heavy hitters so far, but there are a few other projects that I anticipate to make some serious moves in the near-term.

Peons

Ahead of their announced artwork update, Peons seem poised for some solid volume in the near-term and it seems like some are trying to get out in front of it.

I can see this playing out very similarly to OOPA once their art comes on full display.

Perhaps some customizable traits are in order? In any case, I personally wouldn’t fade Joe Studios here.

Chad Doge

The Doges also have something on the way. With upgrade chips on the horizon, people are starting to rotate into one of the best PFP projects on AVAX. Additionally, they recently announced a partnership with raffllrr.xyz which I think is a great incentive to get more faithful holders.

As an aside, if you aren’t using Raffllrr on either the buy side or the sell side, you are fumbling the bag. Not only do you get a chance to win an NFT at a fraction of the price, but since there are so many others that want to throw their hat in the ring for a chance at a steep discount, you’re likely to receive a strong premium on a raffle if you create one.

I’ve been able to sell 3 floor OOPAs (still holding a ton, don’t come after me) at around 10 AVAX apiece over the last two days, so my thesis has been panning out so far. Just some anecdotal evidence to reinforce my belief that Chad Doge made a great call here. Those fees add up!

Conclusion

This was probably the most fun I’ve had writing Mint Avalanche since I started back in November. What an absolute BANGER of a week. Can it get any better than this? Call me crazy, but I’m inclined to think that it can.

Are you aware of The Plan, anon? Is it taking place before your very eyes, or is it yet to come? I can’t say anything (yet), but this penguin Joe thinks this is only the beginning. Strap in.

Cheers,
Chuck