Buyer Of Blood

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.

Gm all. I am staring at my laptop continuously bidding Lil Pudgys after what I believe was the pico shmico bottom for NFTs (at least for the next 2 months). I’m writing this over the weekend so this will be a bit delayed and you can use this as a way to see if I am actually a 200 IQ gigabrain or completely off. I’m enjoying seeing FUD across the timeline, and buying NFTs this last week certainly feels gross. What a disaster of a month April has been for our beloved internet pictures.

I mean, this is absolutely awful. 10K wallets AKA somewhere between 3000-7000 users continuously dumping on each other is quite pathetic. This seems to be a real capitulation event, similar to the one in June 2022. The November 15th 2022 bottom was more of a multi-month grind down with zero volume around the FTX collapse. Either way, overall sentiment is as low as it has been since November 2022 and the embarrassing blow ups of projects like Moonbirds/Doodles/Clone X has many participants down tremendously. Adding insult to injury, Miladys pumping past 3 ETH continues to dunk on any NFT influencer thesis and shows that big-brand/corporations are still unable to foster a strong core community compared to the grassroots projects we know and love.

I think Miladys pumping past collections like Doodles/MBs/Clones is actually a sign of a healthy market. Memes are in control, not scam/grifting 'corporations'. What do I mean by this? Essentially, most are overcomplicating NFTs. These are pictures on the blockchain with essentially ZERO value. They are a true speculators favorite asset, and are simply fun pictures we play around with hoping to not end up as the greater fool. Big corporations and founders with tons of VC money can be helpful at times, but this isn’t always a genuine indication that a collection will do well. Cultish community, memes, and the bright eyes of diamond hands hoping to achieve generational wealth thru a picture is what make the “price go up”. Grass roots projects like Penguins and Pandas are good examples of this. For the Moonbirds, Doodles, Clones - there never really was a strong community or hilarious memes to rally behind, but rather a bunch of people betting on founders (key man risk) and a slush fund of money. It turns out in this case, none of these founders/corporations cared about their holders. I absolutely love Luca as a leader, but without him Penguins have shown to always have a core community who will continue to make memes and simply enjoy cute penguin pictures.

This goes to show how truly difficult this market is. Those who make it really make it, while others fumble generational wealth. Having conviction and diamond hands is a must but at the same time it is equally as important to know when to sell as nothing good lasts forever. Every project that has trended to zero has given you the opportunity to 10x a significant bag, while others have been beaten over and over, only to be revived. This isn’t something that is for the faint of heart, and why over the last few weeks we’ve seen so many exit the space (they’ll be back eventually).

Last week my rant was around how I thought we were within 10% of a bottom and this hasn’t changed. We may have seen true capitulation on Friday when BAYC hit 44 ETH. But what does capitulation even mean? Penguins are up 15% from the bottom, while collections like Doodles continue to go lower with no bid in sight. When the whole market capitulates, only a few projects survive, and in turn bounce aggressively. While you can sense market capitulation, you still have to bid the correct projects and there are under 10 at this point which I believe will bounce hard (have already bounced). Luckily for me, my taste in pictures on the blockchain has been more or less directionally correct.

Another strategy that usually works is buying strength in times of trouble. This worked well when the markets first collapsed last summer, and Penguins went on a massive run. We’ve seen Captainz dominate the market overtaking projects like DeGods. In times of trouble, it’s easy for specific projects to dominate the narrative and Captainz and Miladys are the current ‘meta’. As always, profits will rotate somewhere next, and you have to stay on top of this.

With ETH now dipping big, if we can trend somewhere within the 1500-1900 range for the next month or so, I expect our bags (especially my bags) to be up bigly. While most normoids have no idea ETH and BTC are up 2x from the bottom and specific NFTs are ripping, there is always crazy money to be made in crypto. If you’re like Chuck and hit a nice 100x on $Pepe, congratulations.

Trends like this continue to show that most are still overthinking in this market. While it isn’t totally “turn off your brain” season at this point, left curving hard is often a winning strategy. It’s why I can’t really get behind collections that have permission royalties. I get they may be trying to change the world whether it’s gaming or entertainment or just some larger ponzi with airdrops and fake land. However, most of the time, buying because of the memes or because something is “funny and cute” is usually the winning strategy. Of course, take into consideration timing your exit correctly, like the guy below.

Speaking of timing your exits correctly, hopefully you will sell your Blur airdrop at the pico top this time instead of riding it for a 3x only to hold 50% of your original bag. Blur farming for season 2 ends on 5/1 (or so we’re told) and 150M coins airdropped or ~$80 million dollars at current prices is still quite a large number. Even if 25% of this is injected back into the market, this will be quite the liquidity injection and add to what I think may be an aggressive NFT market pump which I discussed about above. My hunch is that gambling addicts will receive their free ponzi tokens and will want to make back what they’ve lost over the last month.

Overall, I’m cautiously optimistic at this point. Being bearish when everything is down horrendously is lame. Over the last week I have been a buyer of the blood and I expect by mid May this will have worked out for me. Hopefully you didn’t sell the bottom again this time.

Much love,
Wilson